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Carrywatch

How Carrywatch verifies

Carrywatch is an agentic research platform for private capital markets. Agents find deals in public sources and our software checks each fact against the page it came from. This page sets out the method, step by step, next to how the large research data providers do the same job. Each step is marked Live, Partly or Planned to match what runs today.

The process

1. Collect
Live

Our coverage agent runs every 30 minutes on our own computer. It reads SEC 8-K filings that report a merger agreement, a completed acquisition or a change in control; the mergers and acquisitions feeds of PR Newswire and GlobeNewswire; and the news feeds and pages of private equity firms. Funds come from the Form D filings funds make with the SEC. Older deals came from posts on X.

Elsewhere: Web crawlers read news, filings, company websites and press releases.

2. Filter
Live

The agent keeps a document only when a sentence names a private equity buyer, seller or sponsor. It skips blank-check mergers, financings such as convertible notes, and property sales. A language model then proposes the buyer, target, seller and price, each with the exact sentence from the source that states it.

Elsewhere: Machine learning drops items that are not relevant.

3. Confirm
Partly

Before a deal goes live, the site opens the source itself. Every quote must be on the page, every name and figure must be inside its quote, and one whole sentence must name both the buyer and the target. Written copy must match the source too, or the quotes are used instead. A deal whose target is already live is held as a possible duplicate. Only primary sources are accepted: regulators, newswires and the parties' own sites. The stage claimed must be stated in a quote that names the target, and a held deal cannot be resubmitted from another source to get around its hold. A held deal is never shown.

Planned: Not started: checking a second source.

Elsewhere: Research teams collect, calculate and confirm each data point.

4. Quality checks
Partly

Automated tests run on every change to the site, and each build leaves out any agent record that is not in the expected shape. Every day the owners get a report of each deal the agents added or held, with a link to remove a live one, and a warning when an agent has stopped checking in.

Planned: An editor's daily review of a sample of new deals.

Elsewhere: A quality team runs preventive checks and manual reviews.

5. Firms confirm
Partly

Anyone a record names can ask us to correct or remove it through the corrections form. Each request is stored and emailed to the owners.

Planned: A correction link on every page, a public record of changes on each page, and a regular note asking firms to confirm their page.

Elsewhere: A team contacts firms regularly, and firms can update their own profiles.

6. Prove it
Partly

Every deal page links its source and shows the sentences it is built from. This page sets out the method and its limits.

Planned: In review, not live yet: a saved record of every source check and every correction. The three numbers below need it, and will be published once they are measured and checked.

Elsewhere: Providers publish counts of their processes, datasets and research staff.

Limitations

Older deals came from posts on X. For those records, not every fact has a primary source behind it.

An audit on 1 October 2026 found wrong stages, roles and prices in some records, and some duplicates.

Many deals rest on a single source. We do not yet check a second one.

No one outside Carrywatch has audited the records.

A count of corrections is not an accuracy rate. Zero reported corrections does not mean zero errors.

To correct something, use the corrections form.

The numbers

We will publish three numbers, each with its period and sample size, once they are measured and checked. Today we record when a deal reaches the Carrywatch ledger, which is not the same as when it appears on the site.

Sources checked a day
Not yet measured

Before it can be published, it needs:

A saved record of every attempt to check a source, including ones that found nothing new, failed, were rejected or were duplicates.

For each attempt: the source, the time, the result and the version of the checks that ran.

A definition that keeps sources checked apart from page requests and from facts verified. Agent check-ins and counts of added deals do not stand in for it.

Minutes from a source to its live page
Not yet measured

Before it can be published, it needs:

How precise each source's time is, and where it came from.

When each deal was first accepted and when it was first publicly visible, tied to the deploy that published it. A deploy request that succeeded is not a live page.

Clear handling of deals held and then released, and of deals added later from older sources.

A published window, sample size and exclusions, with no minutes for sources that give only a date.

Corrections per 100 facts
Not yet measured

Before it can be published, it needs:

A stable identity for each fact.

For each correction: the reason, the wrong earlier version, who reviewed it, and when the fix was made and published.

A count of eligible published facts for the same period.

Routine stage updates and added detail kept apart from corrections of errors, and removals tracked.